Longitudinal patterns of natural hazard exposures and anxiety and depression symptoms among young adults in four low- and middle-income countries.

We estimated the effect of community-level natural hazard exposure during prior developmental stages on later anxiety and depression symptoms among young adults and potential differences stratified by gender. We analyzed longitudinal data (2002-2020) on 5585 young adults between 19 and 26 years in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. A binary question identified community-level exposure, and psychometrically validated scales measured recent anxiety and depression symptoms. Young adults with three exposure histories ("time point 1," "time point 2," and "both time points") were contrasted with their unexposed peers. We applied a longitudinal targeted minimum loss-based estimator with an ensemble of machine learning algorithms for estimation. Young adults living in exposed communities did not exhibit substantially different anxiety or depression symptoms from their unexposed peers, except for young women in Ethiopia who exhibited less anxiety symptoms (average causal effect [ACE] estimate = - 8.86 [95% CI: - 17.04, - 0.68] anxiety score). In this study, singular and repeated natural hazard exposures generally were not associated with later anxiety and depression symptoms. Further examination is needed to understand how distal natural hazard exposures affect lifelong mental health, which aspects of natural hazards are most salient, how disaster relief may modify symptoms, and gendered, age-specific, and contextual differences.

Exploring children's formal help-seeking behaviour for violence in Zimbabwe: analysis of national survey and routine service provider data.

OBJECTIVES: To explore knowledge of formal services and help-seeking behaviour for violence among Zimbabwean children aged 18 years and under. DESIGN: We use cross-sectional data from the 2017 Zimbabwe Violence Against Children Survey (VACS), which is nationally representative and had a 72% response rate for female participants and 66% for males; and anonymised routine data from one of the largest child protection service providers' (Childline Zimbabwe) call database. SETTING: Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS: We analysed data from 13 to 18 year old participants in the 2017 VACS and pertaining to respondents aged 18 years and under from Childline Zimbabwe's call database. MEASURES/ANALYSIS: We describe characteristics of children, and fit unadjusted and logistic regression models to estimate associations between selected characteristics and help-seeking knowledge and behaviours. RESULTS: 1339 of 4622 children aged 13-18 years surveyed for the 2017 VACS in Zimbabwe (29.8%) reported experience of lifetime physical and/or sexual violence. Of these, 829 (57.3%) children did not know where to seek formal help, 364 (33.1%) children knew where to seek help but did not, and 139 (9.6%) children knew where to seek help and did seek help. Boys were more likely to know where to seek help, but girls were more likely to actually seek help. During the 6-month period when VACS survey data were being collected, Childline received 2177 calls where the main reason for the call was recorded as violence against someone aged 18 years or under. These 2177 calls contained more reports from girls and children in school, versus the national profile of children who had experienced violence. Few children who did not seek help reported not wanting services. Most children who did not seek help reported that they felt at fault or that their safety would be put at risk by disclosure. CONCLUSION: Both awareness of services and help-seeking are gendered, suggesting that different strategies may be needed to support boys and girls to access the help they want. Childline in particular may be well placed to expand its outreach to boys and to receive more reports of school-related violence, and should consider efforts to reach out-of-school children.

National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 1.8 billion children live in countries where COVID-19 disrupted violence prevention and response. It is important to understand how government policies to contain COVID-19 impacted children's ability to seek help, especially in contexts where there was limited formal help-seeking prior to the pandemic. We aimed to quantify how the national lockdown in Zimbabwe affected helpline calls for violence against children, estimated the number of calls that would have been received had the lockdown not occurred and described characteristics of types of calls and callers before and after the national lockdown. METHODS: We used an interrupted time series design to analyse the proportion of violence related calls (17,913 calls out of 57,050) to Childline Zimbabwe's national child helpline between 2017 to 2021. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average regression (ARIMA) models to test possible changes in call trends before and after the March 2020 lockdown and forecasted how many calls would have been received in the absence of lockdown. In addition, we examined call characteristics before and after lockdown descriptively. RESULTS: The proportion of violence related calls decreased in the 90 days after the lockdown and subsequently returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. We estimate that 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-14.6%) more violence related calls would have occurred in this period had there not been a lockdown. Violence was increasingly reported as occurring in children's households, with fewer reports from children and formal child protection actors. CONCLUSIONS: Lockdowns dramatically change everyday life and strain populations, which is unlikely to reduce violence prevalence but may reduce help-seeking. The three months after COVID-19 lockdowns may be key time periods when help-seeking for violence decreases drastically. Policy makers should ensure that in-person and remote services support help-seeking. Interventions and campaigns may additionally want to target adult female family members in encouraging reporting of suspected violence cases when they occur within households and are perpetuated by other family members. We suggest a composite approach of scaling-up remote reporting mechanisms that are accessible and geographically well-distributed, establishing non-traditional sites for help seeking within communities and continuing limited in-person home visitation for known cases of violence.

Pre-processing data to reduce biases: full matching incorporating an instrumental variable in population-based studies.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologists are often concerned with unobserved biases that produce confounding in population-based studies. We introduce a new design approach-'full matching incorporating an instrumental variable (IV)' or 'Full-IV Matching'-and illustrate its utility in reducing observed and unobserved biases to increase inference accuracy. Our motivating example is tailored to a central question in humanitarian emergencies-the difference in sexual violence risk by displacement setting. METHODS: We conducted a series of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations generated from a population-based survey after the 2010 Haitian earthquake and included earthquake damage severity as an IV and the unmeasured variable of 'social capital'. We compared standardized mean differences (SMDs) for covariates after different designs to understand potential biases. Mean risk differences (RDs) were used to assess each design's accuracy in estimating the oracle of the simulated data set. RESULTS: Naive analysis and pair matching equivalently performed. Full matching reduced imbalances between exposed and comparison groups across covariates, except for the unobserved covariate of 'social capital'. Pair and full matching overstated differences in sexual violence risk when displaced to a camp vs a community [pair: RD = 0.13, 95% simulation interval (SI) 0.09-0.16; full: RD = 0.11, 95% SI 0.08-0.14). Full-IV Matching reduced imbalances across observed covariates and importantly 'social capital'. The estimated risk difference (RD = 0.07, 95% SI 0.03-0.11) was closest to the oracle (RD = 0.06, 95% SI 0.4-0.8). CONCLUSION: Full-IV Matching is a novel approach that is promising for increasing inference accuracy when unmeasured sources of bias likely exist.

Global estimates of violence against children with disabilities: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous meta-analysis evidence shows that children (aged 0-18 years) with disabilities experience high amounts of violence. During the past decade, there has been a substantial increase in the volume of available data, and we therefore aimed to update the evidence and provide a current global estimate of violence against children with disabilities. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 18 English-language international databases for observational studies published in English or Chinese between Aug 17, 2010, and Sept 16, 2020, and three Chinese databases for studies published from database inception to Sept 16, 2020. We used search terms structured around the concepts of disability, child, and violence-defining violence as physical, emotional, or sexual violence, or neglect, and considering disability as physical, mental, intellectual, and sensory impairments, and chronic diseases. We also searched 11 grey-literature repositories and hand searched the reference lists of included records for observational studies. We double screened records for studies that measured violence against children with disabilities. We excluded studies that included only people who had experienced violence or that did not provide separate estimates for children if adults were also included. Two authors independently extracted data and appraised study quality. We pooled estimates using three-level, mixed-effects meta-analyses, and did subgroup analyses. This study was prospectively registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020204859. FINDINGS: We found and screened 26 204 records, of which we excluded 25 844. We assessed 386 full text articles and finally included 98 studies (with 16 831 324 children) in our analysis. Our results showed that the overall prevalence of violence against children with disabilities was 31·7% (95% CI 27·1-36·8; I2=99·15%; 16 807 154 children, 92 studies) and the overall odds ratio of children with versus without disabilities experiencing violence was 2·08 (1·81-2·38; I2=91·5%; 16 811 074 children, 60 studies). Sensitivity analyses suggested a high degree of certainty for these estimates, although there was a high degree of heterogeneity across most estimates. There was some risk of publication bias, although the included studies were, on average, of medium quality. The estimates of violence differed by the type of violence, disability, and perpetrator. Children in economically disadvantaged contexts were especially vulnerable to experiencing violence. INTERPRETATION: This review shows that children with disabilities experience a high burden of all forms of violence, despite advances in awareness and policy in the past 10 years. Our results indicate a need for increased partnerships across disciplines and sectors to protect children with disabilities from violence. Additional well designed research is also needed, especially in under-represented and economically disadvantaged populations. FUNDING: There was no funding source for this study.

Quantifying diurnal changes in NO2 due to COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in New York City.

Introduction: Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the NY on Pause stay-at-home order (March 22 - June 8, 2020), substantially reduced traffic and traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) in New York City (NYC). We evaluated the magnitude of TRAP decreases and examined the role of modifying factors such as weekend/weekday, road proximity, location, and time-of-day. Methods: Hourly nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from January 1, 2018 through June 8, 2020 were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System for all six hourly monitors in the NYC area. We used an interrupted time series design to determine the impact of NY on Pause on NO2 concentrations, using a mixed effects model with random intercepts for monitor location, adjusted for meteorology and long-term trends. We evaluated effect modification through stratification. Results: NO2 concentrations decreased during NY on Pause by 19% (-3.2 ppb, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.5, -3.0), on average, compared to pre-Pause time trends. We found no evidence for modification by weekend/weekday, but greater decreases in NO2 at non-roadside monitors and weak evidence for modification by location. For time-of-day, we found the largest decreases for 5 am (27%, -4.5 ppb, 95% CI: -5.7, -3.3) through 7 am (24%, -4.0 ppb, 95% CI: -5.2, -2.8), followed by 6 pm and 7 pm (22%, -3.7 ppb, 95% CI: -4.8, -2.6 and 22%, -4.8, -2.5, respectively), while the smallest decreases occurred at 11 pm and 1 am (both: 11%, -1.9 ppb, 95% CI: -3.1, -0.7). Conclusion: NY on Pause's impact on TRAP varied greatly diurnally. Decreases during early morning and evening time periods are likely due to decreases in traffic. Our results may be useful for planning traffic policies that vary by time of day, such as congestion tolling policies.

Violence against children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected children's risk of violence in their homes, communities and online, and has compromised the ability of child protection systems to promptly detect and respond to cases of violence. However, the need to strengthen violence prevention and response services has received insufficient attention in national and global pandemic response and mitigation strategies. In this paper, we summarize the growing body of evidence on the links between the pandemic and violence against children. Drawing on the World Health Organization's INSPIRE framework to end violence against children, we illustrate how the pandemic is affecting prevention and response efforts. For each of the seven INSPIRE strategies we identify how responses to the pandemic have changed children's risk of violence. We offer ideas for how governments, policy-makers, and international and civil society organizations can address violence in the context of a protracted COVID-19 crisis. We conclude by highlighting how the current pandemic offers opportunities to improve existing child protection systems to address violence against children. We suggest enhanced multisectoral coordination across the health, education, law enforcement, housing, child and social protection sectors. Actions need to prioritize the primary prevention of violence and promote the central role of children and adolescents in decision-making and programme design processes. Finally, we stress the continued need for better data and evidence to inform violence prevention and response strategies that can be effective during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

La pandémie de maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) a eu un impact sur le risque de violence à l'égard des enfants à domicile, au sein de leur communauté et en ligne. Elle a également empêché les systèmes de protection de l'enfance d'identifier rapidement les situations de ce type et d'y réagir dès que possible. Pourtant, la nécessité de renforcer les services de prévention et d'action en la matière n'a pas été suffisamment prise en compte dans les stratégies nationales et internationales d'intervention et d'atténuation des effets de la pandémie. Le présent document reprend l'accumulation de preuves confirmant les liens entre pandémie et violence à l'égard des enfants. En nous inspirant du cadre INSPIRE de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé visant à mettre fin à la violence à l'encontre des enfants, nous illustrons la façon dont la pandémie affecte les efforts de prévention et d'action. Pour chacune des sept stratégies INSPIRE, nous déterminons comment les mesures de lutte contre la pandémie ont influencé le risque de violence envers les enfants. Nous formulons des pistes pour que les gouvernements, les législateurs, les institutions internationales et les organisations de la société civile puissent remédier à cette violence dans un contexte de crise prolongée due à la COVID-19. En guise de conclusion, nous mettons en lumière les opportunités qu'offre la pandémie actuelle d'améliorer les systèmes existants de protection de l'enfance pour mieux combattre la violence envers les enfants. Nous suggérons d'accroître la collaboration entre les secteurs de la santé, de l'éducation, du maintien de l'ordre, du logement, des droits de l'enfant et de la protection sociale. Les actions entreprises doivent se focaliser sur la prévention primaire de la violence et promouvoir le rôle central des enfants et adolescents dans les processus de conception de programmes et de prise de décisions. Enfin, nous soulignons le besoin permanent de données et de preuves fiables pour orienter les stratégies de prévention et d'intervention face à la violence, afin de garantir leur efficacité pendant et après la pandémie de COVID-19.

La pandemia de la enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) ha afectado al riesgo de violencia infantil que sufren los niños en sus hogares, comunidades y en línea, y ha puesto en peligro la capacidad de los sistemas de protección infantil para detectar y responder rápidamente a los casos de violencia. Sin embargo, la necesidad de reforzar los servicios de prevención y respuesta a la violencia no ha recibido suficiente atención en las estrategias nacionales y mundiales de respuesta y mitigación de la pandemia. En este documento, resumimos el creciente conjunto de pruebas sobre los vínculos entre la pandemia y la violencia infantil. Basándonos en el marco INSPIRE de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para poner fin a la violencia infantil, ilustramos cómo la pandemia está afectando a los esfuerzos de prevención y respuesta. Para cada una de las siete estrategias de INSPIRE, identificamos cómo las respuestas a la pandemia han cambiado el riesgo de violencia infantil. Ofrecemos ideas sobre cómo los gobiernos, los responsables políticos y las organizaciones internacionales y de la sociedad civil pueden abordar la violencia en el contexto de una crisis prolongada de COVID-19. Concluimos destacando cómo la pandemia actual ofrece oportunidades para mejorar los sistemas de protección infantil existentes para abordar este tipo de violencia. Sugerimos una mayor coordinación multisectorial en los sectores de la salud, la educación, la aplicación de la ley, la vivienda y la protección social infantil. Las acciones deben priorizar la prevención primaria de la violencia y promover el papel central de los niños y adolescentes en los procesos de toma de decisiones y en el diseño de programas. Por último, subrayamos la necesidad permanente de contar con mejores datos y pruebas para fundamentar las estrategias de prevención y respuesta a la violencia que puedan ser eficaces durante la pandemia de COVID-19 y seguir vigentes cuando ésta pase.

The pathways between natural disasters and violence against children: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Natural disasters are increasingly affecting a larger segment of the world's population. These highly disruptive events have the potential to produce negative changes in social dynamics and the environment which increase violence against children. We do not currently have a comprehensive understanding of how natural disasters lead to violence against children despite the growing threat to human populations and the importance of violence as a public health issue. The mapping of pathways to violence is critical in designing targeted and evidence-based prevention services for children. We systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles and grey literature to document the pathways between natural disasters and violence against children and to suggest how this information could be used in the design of future programming. METHODS: We searched 15 bibliographic databases and six grey literature repositories from the earliest date of publication to May 16, 2018. In addition, we solicited grey literature from humanitarian agencies globally that implement child-focused programming after natural disasters. Peer-reviewed articles and grey literature that presented original quantitative or qualitative evidence on how natural disasters led to violence against children were included. The authors synthesized the evidence narratively and used thematic analysis with a constant comparative method to articulate pathways to violence. RESULTS: We identified 6276 unduplicated publications. Nine peer-reviewed articles and 17 grey literature publications met the inclusion criteria. The literature outlined five pathways between natural disasters and violence, including: (i) environmentally induced changes in supervision, accompaniment, and child separation; (ii) transgression of social norms in post-disaster behavior; (iii) economic stress; (iv) negative coping with stress; and (v) insecure shelter and living conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Service providers would benefit from systematic documentation to a high-quality standard of all possible pathways to violence in tailoring programming after natural disasters. The identified pathways in this review provide a foundation for designing targeted prevention services. In addition, the positive coping strategies within certain affected families and communities can be leveraged in implementing strength-based approaches to violence prevention.

Factors Associated With Violence Against Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression of Nationally Representative Data.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review and meta-regression sought to identify the relative importance of factors associated with physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding of factors associated with violence is important for targeted programming and prevention on the population level. METHODS: We searched 17 electronic databases from 1989 to 2018 and reports from child violence surveys. Nationally representative studies that described evidence on potential factors associated with violence against children under 18 years old were included. The search was restricted to the English language. Factors were synthesized quantitatively using robust variance estimation, with 95% confidence intervals, for each violence type. RESULTS: We identified 8,346 unduplicated studies, and 103 publications met our eligibility criteria. The data distribution was uneven across region, country income status, factors, and violence types. Of the 94 eligible studies quantitatively synthesized, no specific factors were significant for physical violence. Lower household socioeconomic status, being a girl, and primary education of mothers and adults in the household were associated with emotional violence, and being a girl was associated with sexual violence. CONCLUSION: A broad spectrum of factors merit consideration for physical violence policy and prevention among the general population of children in low- and middle-income countries. Conversely, a tailored approach may be warranted for preventing emotional and sexual violence. Information is unequally distributed across countries, factors, and violence types. Greater emphasis should be placed on collecting representative data on the general population and vulnerable subgroups to achieve national reductions in violence against children.

Did internal displacement from the 2010 earthquake in Haiti lead to long-term violence against children? A matched pairs study design.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence is limited and contradictory on violence against children after internal displacement from natural disasters. Understanding how internal displacement affects violence is key in structuring effective prevention and response. OBJECTIVE: We examined the effect of internal displacement from the 2010 Haitian earthquake on long-term physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children and outlined a methodological framework to improve future evidence quality. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: We analyzed violence against adolescent girls and boys within the nationally representative, Haiti Violence Against Children Survey. METHODS: We pre-processed data by matching on pre-earthquake characteristics for displaced and non-displaced children and applied 95 % confidence intervals from McNemar's exact test, with sensitivity analyses, to evaluate differences in violence outcomes between matched pairs after the earthquake. RESULTS: Internal displacement was not associated with past 12-month physical, emotional, and sexual violence two years after the earthquake for girls and boys. Most violence outcomes were robust to potential unmeasured confounding. Odds ratios for any form of violence against girls were 0.84 (95 % CI: 0.52-1.33, p = 0.500) and against boys were 1.03 (95 % CI: 0.61-1.73, p = 1.000). CONCLUSIONS: Internal displacement was not a driver of long-term violence against children in Haiti. Current global protocols in disaster settings may initiate services after the optimal window of time to protect children from violence, and the post-displacement setting may be central in determining violence outcomes. The combination of specific data structures and matching methodologies is promising to increase evidence quality after rapid-onset natural disasters, especially in low-resource settings.

Violence against children and natural disasters: A systematic review and meta-analysis of quantitative evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Reviews of violence against children in disaster settings focus on armed conflict. Little is understood about natural disasters which has implications in planning humanitarian response. We examined the magnitude and direction of the association between exposure to natural disasters and physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children, and assessed the quality of the evidence. METHODS: We searched 15 health and social science databases from first record until May 16, 2018. Publications describing all types of quantitative study design were eligible for inclusion. We presented study characteristics and quality in a narrative form and generated pooled estimates using a three-level random effects model. We evaluated Cochrane's Q with p-values below 0.10 and radial plots to assess heterogeneity. Planned subgroup analyses explored differential results by violence form, study design, and analysis method. RESULTS: 11 publications met inclusion criteria. The majority were cross-sectional studies examining physical or sexual violence in the United States. We found no evidence of a consistent association or directional influence between natural disasters and violence against children. Combined categorical violence outcomes had substantial heterogeneity [Q (df = 66) = 252.83, p < 0.001]. Subgroups without evidence of heterogeneity had confidence intervals that included a possible null effect. Our findings were mainly limited by inconsistencies in operational definitions of violence, a lack of representative sampling, and unclear establishment of temporal order between natural disaster exposure and violence outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available evidence, we cannot confidently conclude that natural disasters increase the level or severity of violence against children above non-disaster settings, however heterogeneity and study quality hamper our ability to draw firm conclusions. More nuanced and rigorous research is needed to inform practice and policy as natural disasters increasingly affect human populations.